![]() ![]() Īs a plant grows, it pulls CO 2 out of the atmosphere through photosynthesis. ![]() In contrast, over the past several decades the potential to sequester large quantities of C into the soil by altering land use and management has been demonstrated conclusively. For oceanic and geological sequestration, current technologies are uncertain, expensive, and ecologically-risky. There are two primary sinks for atmospheric C: oceans and land (either through geological or soil sequestration). Most proposed solutions to the climate problem-for example renewable energy-aim to slow or stop greenhouse gas (GhG) emissions, but it is also possible to mitigate GhGs by removing excess C already in the atmosphere. Further, we suggest that the methodology presented is generalizable and can be extended to study soil C sequestration elsewhere. Also, key policy decisions are often implemented at the state level, as in the case of the 2020 Vermont Global Warming Solutions Act. This scale of analysis lends itself to effective data curation, facilitating both transparency of assumptions and sufficiently-detailed projections. We use a version of the Rothamsted Carbon Model (RothC) to assess the potential for Vermont’s farmland soils to sequester C through regenerative agriculture. state of Vermont, and we focus specifically on the 12% of the state’s landbase currently in farms. Managing land to avoid soil C loss and promote sequestration represents a critical strategy to re-normalize the global C balance. Globally, about a third of the CO 2 released to the atmosphere results from clearing land for cultivation. Soil C stocks can either increase or decrease depending on land use and management. Topsoil globally holds a vast amount of C, at roughly 2.5 trillion metric tonnes, or 3.1 times the quantity of atmospheric C. The current excess of atmospheric C has resulted from human activities including burning fossil fuels and disruption of soil through land development and tillage. (SW & BB) The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript.Ĭompeting interests: We have no conflicts of interest to disclose.Īs society has increasingly been forced to address anthropogenic climate change, understanding carbon (C) cycles within the terrestrial ecosystem has become critical. Other input data appear as tables and figures in the manuscript itself.įunding: Support for this project was provided by the University of Vermont Agricultural Research Service, Food Systems Research Center ( ). This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.ĭata Availability: GIS-derived data used for model inputs are included as a supplementary file. Received: NovemAccepted: MaPublished: April 11, 2022Ĭopyright: © 2022 Wiltshire, Beckage. We discuss tradeoffs and policy implications, especially in the context of the 2020 Vermont Global Warming Solutions Act, and suggest that payments for ecosystem services for farmers sequestering carbon may have strategic value.Ĭitation: Wiltshire S, Beckage B (2022) Soil carbon sequestration through regenerative agriculture in the U.S. Of all scenarios, afforestation of farmland to non-harvested forest stores the most soil carbon, increasing stocks by 6.5% after ten years, and continuing to sequester at a high rate many decades into the future. ![]() Among the regenerative agriculture scenarios, conversion to rotational grazing offers the highest soil carbon sequestration potential, at 1,269 kt, or 5.3% above current stocks after ten years. In the simulation runs, we find that all non-business-as-usual scenarios sequester carbon over time, with a higher rate of sequestration in the decades immediately after a land use or management change. We consult experts as well as the literature to parameterize the anticipated effects of alternative agricultural management practices on soil carbon inputs. Empirical soil laboratory data are used to initialize the model to mirror current conditions under each of three agricultural land uses (crops, hay, and pasture) in each Ecoregion. We split the study area into 13 Ecoregions for a finer spatial scale of analysis, with key climate, soil, and land use data specified for each. We weigh the sequestration potential of several types of regenerative agricultural practices against both business as usual and afforestation scenarios using the Rothamsted Carbon Model. This study investigates the extent to which land use and management transitions on Vermont’s farmland could sequester atmospheric carbon in the soil. ![]()
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